Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -250 CP +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -7.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.5 (-45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -7.1 (+1.9) | 159.0 (-34.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.3 (+3.7) | 161.1 (-36.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.8 (+2.2) | 160.1 (-35.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -6.8 (+2.2) | 161.3 (-36.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCD 59 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 85.3 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#180) | -5.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#136) | -0.81 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#129) | -1.02 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#143) | 0.462 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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