Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -145 CP +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CP -3.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -3.1 (+14.1) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.8 (+10.2) | 153.6 (-10.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -1.2 (+12.2) | 152.4 (-9.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -2.2 (+13.2) | 151.0 (-8.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCD 59 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#219) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#125) | 1.78 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#152) | 2.51 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.594 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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