Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +105 CP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -3.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -2.6 (-7.4) | 149.3 (+12.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -1.4 (-8.6) | 151.7 (+10.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -3.7 (-6.3) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CP -3.4 (-6.6) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCD 59 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#241) | -1.4 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#176) | -0.21 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#200) | -0.31 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#192) | 0.484 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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