But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
Cal Poly Mustangs
52 59
FINAL Conference
UC Davis Aggies
Big West Conference · Mott Athletics Center · February 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCD -9.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money CP +400 / UCD -450
Model Predictions
Spread Total CP win
Actual UCD +7 111 Lost
Massey UCD -7.9 (+0.9)
Massey Totals 133.9 (-22.9)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 14%
Efficiency Plus ML UCD -7.4 (+0.4) 129.5 (-18.5) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML UCD -7.9 (+0.9) 130.7 (-19.7) 22%
Baseline ML UCD -7.9 (+0.9) 131.0 (-20.0) 21%
Baseline Plus ML UCD -8.4 (+1.4) 131.6 (-20.6) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 UCD 6758 CP
Jan 10, 2026 CP 8478 UCD
Mar 13, 2025 CP 8676 UCD
Jan 17, 2025 UCD 6554 CP
Dec 6, 2024 UCD 7766 CP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CP UCD
Overall 4-28 20-13
Conference 0-20 14-6
Home 3-11 10-6
Away 0-16 8-6
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 0-5 4-1
Streak L20 L1
Avg Pts For 63.1 70.5
Avg Pts Against 74.5 69.0
Massey -11.0 (#329) 0.4 (#156)
Bradley-Terry -1.96 (#329) 0.21 (#156)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.49 (#331) 0.07 (#168)
RPI 0.388 (#342) 0.489 (#193)
Shooting & Four Factors CP UCD
FG% 40.0% 44.6%
3PT% 31.3% 33.7%
REB / G 31.9 33.1
OREB / G 9.4 9.9
AST / TO 0.75 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.9% 50.9%
TOV% 18.9% 20.1%
ORB% 25.5% 29.5%
FT Rate 21.3% 29.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 21.3%
DRB% 66.1% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 32.1% 29.0%

Game Analysis

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