Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | CP -275 UCD +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -6.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-41.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -4.2 (-15.2) | 151.0 (-32.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -3.2 (-14.2) | 148.0 (-29.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -3.5 (-14.5) | 149.6 (-30.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -4.0 (-15.0) | 150.9 (-31.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCD 59 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | -6.1 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#239) | -0.36 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#239) | -0.76 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#237) | 0.474 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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