Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.2 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +10.8 137.6 84% 69–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner +17.3 156.9 94% 71–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University +12.0 141.6 86% 58–60 ✓
New Haven @ Le Moyne +6.5 138.8 72% 47–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT -0.1 132.8 50% 76–80 ✗
Binghamton @ Vermont +22.0 155.7 98% 59–60 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern -2.2 145.7 42% 87–78 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T -5.4 168.5 31% 69–64 ✓
Hampton @ Campbell +6.0 148.8 71% 72–86 ✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth -5.2 154.3 32% 70–81 ✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel +1.9 135.0 57% 37–56 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -1.0 136.4 46% 52–50 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +3.0 147.5 61% 70–66 ✗
West Georgia @ North Florida +0.5 168.9 52% 85–73 ✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville -2.3 159.8 42% 77–51 ✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky +7.0 146.6 74% 80–88 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson -13.9 150.2 10% 83–91 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine -0.8 156.4 47% 78–84 ✗
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.7 156.0 60% 82–71 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech -5.1 129.8 32% 72–56 ✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State -3.8 137.1 37% 76–68 ✓
Delaware @ Sam Houston +16.2 148.1 93% 60–72 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +6.8 168.1 73% 79–87 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -8.4 143.0 22% 97–73 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +6.0 149.4 71% 79–90 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss +11.6 144.8 85% 70–80 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona -3.4 150.7 38% 78–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +2.5 157.9 59% 72–85 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +26.5 153.8 99% 72–89 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +8.6 148.0 78% 84–80 ✗
Rutgers @ Illinois +26.0 147.7 99% 55–81 ✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois -8.4 146.8 22% 90–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana -6.0 148.5 29% 84–76 ✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +8.8 133.9 79% 73–70 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois +2.5 143.4 59% 61–71 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +5.6 142.2 70% 79–85 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +3.4 156.0 62% 93–86 ✗
Montana @ Idaho +6.5 154.3 72% 79–73 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -3.3 159.8 38% 68–64 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP -8.1 133.6 23% 80–83 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +3.6 157.6 63% 64–80 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego +6.2 143.4 71% 63–83 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.7 154.6 60% 66–67 ✓
Seattle U @ Oregon State -4.9 142.1 33% 55–68 ✗
Pacific @ Portland -4.0 143.7 36% 89–90 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +5.2 172.9 68% 90–95 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +11.5 142.5 85% 64–74 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +16.3 169.6 93% 88–71 ✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +7.5 141.8 75% 72–84 ✓
Ohio State @ Oregon -2.7 157.5 40% 72–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount +2.8 135.0 60% 82–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +18.1 162.4 95% 77–89 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo -1.9 167.9 43% 87–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.