Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | BELL +124 CARK -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -0.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -0.9 (+6.9) | 151.7 (+10.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BELL -0.2 (+5.8) | 149.5 (+12.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BELL -0.3 (+5.7) | 150.8 (+11.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -1.0 (+5.0) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CARK 86 – 73 BELL |
| Feb 12, 2026 | CARK 84 – 76 BELL |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CARK 71 – 65 BELL |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BELL 68 – 65 CARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | CARK 59 – 57 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#262) | -2.0 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#302) | -0.99 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#302) | -1.35 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#278) | 0.464 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 26.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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