Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -340 BELL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +13 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -7.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -9.3 (+3.7) | 153.6 (+5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -8.4 (+4.6) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -8.0 (+5.0) | 151.6 (+7.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -9.1 (+3.9) | 150.5 (+8.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CARK 84 – 76 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | BELL 84 – 78 CARK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CARK 71 – 65 BELL |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BELL 68 – 65 CARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | CARK 59 – 57 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 83.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | -7.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#162) | -1.25 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | -1.50 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#98) | 0.441 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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