Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UL -345 ULM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UL -6.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -4.4 (+1.6) | 135.0 (+29.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -5.3 (+0.7) | 133.4 (+30.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -4.3 (+1.7) | 132.5 (+31.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.3 (+0.7) | 138.1 (+25.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ULM 66 – 59 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-8 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#332) | -14.7 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#342) | -4.15 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#339) | -5.60 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#342) | 0.337 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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