Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UL -290 ULM +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UL -5.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -4.9 (-1.9) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -6.1 (-3.1) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -4.9 (-1.9) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.2 (-2.2) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ULM 66 – 59 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#337) | -13.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#320) | -3.13 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#310) | -3.99 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#288) | 0.339 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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