Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +114 UL -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -4.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -2.3 (-16.3) | 133.4 (+4.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -1.3 (-15.3) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -1.4 (-15.4) | 133.4 (+4.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -0.9 (-14.9) | 134.1 (+3.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ULM 66 – 59 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-10 | 7-8 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#344) | -13.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.46 (#352) | -3.21 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.70 (#353) | -4.31 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#357) | 0.371 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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