Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +250 UL -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UL -7.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -7.2 (+14.2) | 142.8 (-17.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.2 (+14.2) | 144.0 (-19.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -7.9 (+14.9) | 145.2 (-20.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -6.8 (+13.8) | 144.3 (-19.3) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#303) | 3.1 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#276) | 0.48 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#280) | 0.63 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#256) | 0.547 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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