Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UL -230 ULM +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UL -4.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.7 (+0.3) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -3.6 (+0.4) | 136.9 (+5.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -3.3 (+0.7) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -4.1 (-0.1) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ULM 66 – 59 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#317) | -13.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#281) | -2.41 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#287) | -2.92 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#250) | 0.386 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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