Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +100 UL -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -2.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -0.2 (-5.2) | 139.8 (-14.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.2 (-3.8) | 139.0 (-14.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -0.9 (-4.1) | 141.9 (-16.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.4 (-4.6) | 140.7 (-15.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ULM 66 – 59 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-11 | 5-12 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#349) | -11.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#359) | -1.87 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.14 (#358) | -2.38 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#363) | 0.428 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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