Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -360 SFPA +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -17.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -13.8 (-15.8) | 149.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -11.9 (-13.9) | 147.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -12.9 (-14.9) | 149.7 (-9.7) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -12.6 (-14.6) | 150.1 (-10.1) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WAG 65 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#275) | -20.7 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#303) | -3.50 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#317) | -4.92 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#282) | 0.377 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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