Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -145 WAG +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -5.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -3.5 (-0.5) | 130.5 (-17.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -2.0 (+1.0) | 130.5 (-17.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.5 (-0.5) | 129.3 (-16.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -3.9 (-0.9) | 130.3 (-17.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WAG 65 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#324) | -12.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#304) | -1.80 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#304) | -2.63 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#248) | 0.421 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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