Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -140 WAG +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -5.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -3.8 (-5.8) | 130.1 (+3.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -2.0 (-4.0) | 128.3 (+5.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.5 (-5.5) | 127.5 (+6.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -4.2 (-6.2) | 129.1 (+4.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WAG 65 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#322) | -12.6 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#297) | -1.81 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#308) | -2.92 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#269) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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