Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +163 WAG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -3.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.1 (+1.1) | 125.3 (+2.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.8 (+1.8) | 125.2 (+2.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -3.7 (+1.7) | 127.0 (+1.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.9 (+0.9) | 126.7 (+1.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#347) | -7.0 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#342) | -1.23 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#347) | -1.84 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#338) | 0.444 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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