Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -165 SFPA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -2.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.2 (+2.2) | 123.9 (+14.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.9 (+2.9) | 123.8 (+14.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.1 (+1.9) | 123.7 (+14.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.7 (+2.7) | 124.7 (+13.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WAG 65 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#343) | -10.9 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#318) | -1.43 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#339) | -2.06 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#326) | 0.443 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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