Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +100 WAG -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +9 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -3.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -1.9 (-7.1) | 149.7 (-28.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -2.1 (-6.9) | 147.1 (-26.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.2 (-6.8) | 148.0 (-27.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.6 (-6.4) | 151.6 (-30.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WAG 65 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#355) | -9.9 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#356) | -2.16 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.95 (#356) | -2.83 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#354) | 0.420 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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