Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -230 STBK +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +19 | 93 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -2.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-41.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.0 (+18.0) | 132.4 (-39.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.7 (+16.3) | 132.6 (-39.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.0 (+18.0) | 131.8 (-38.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -0.5 (+18.5) | 132.4 (-39.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | STBK 72 – 69 DREX |
| Jan 10, 2025 | DREX 67 – 51 STBK |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STBK 91 – 88 DREX |
| Mar 1, 2024 | DREX 90 – 86 STBK |
| Jan 13, 2023 | STBK 67 – 66 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#272) | -5.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#310) | -0.48 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#305) | -1.23 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#333) | 0.465 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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