Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -225 STBK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +3 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -4.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+40.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -2.5 (-5.5) | 139.4 (+39.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.7 (-6.7) | 138.5 (+40.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -2.9 (-5.9) | 140.0 (+39.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -3.0 (-6.0) | 141.2 (+37.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | STBK 72 – 69 DREX |
| Jan 9, 2026 | DREX 56 – 37 STBK |
| Jan 10, 2025 | DREX 67 – 51 STBK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | DREX 90 – 86 STBK |
| Jan 13, 2023 | STBK 67 – 66 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -1.7 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#130) | 0.00 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | 0.14 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.511 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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