Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +180 DREX -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +16 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -6.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -6.0 (-10.0) | 130.6 (-12.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -7.0 (-9.0) | 131.5 (-13.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -6.1 (-9.9) | 132.0 (-14.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -5.9 (-10.1) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | STBK 72 – 69 DREX |
| Jan 9, 2026 | DREX 56 – 37 STBK |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STBK 91 – 88 DREX |
| Mar 1, 2024 | DREX 90 – 86 STBK |
| Jan 13, 2023 | STBK 67 – 66 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#339) | -1.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#302) | -0.30 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#313) | -0.40 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#305) | 0.467 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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