Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -6.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -7.1 (+8.1) | 126.4 (+6.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -5.9 (+6.9) | 123.4 (+9.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -5.7 (+6.7) | 125.2 (+7.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -6.2 (+7.2) | 125.9 (+7.1) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | STBK 72 – 69 DREX |
| Jan 9, 2026 | DREX 56 – 37 STBK |
| Jan 10, 2025 | DREX 67 – 51 STBK |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STBK 91 – 88 DREX |
| Mar 1, 2024 | DREX 90 – 86 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#331) | 0.5 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#293) | -0.33 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#296) | -0.35 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#292) | 0.453 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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