Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -198 UCD +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +7 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -3.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.6 (-9.6) | 147.4 (+31.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -4.2 (-11.2) | 145.0 (+34.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.2 (-9.2) | 146.6 (+32.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.6 (-9.6) | 147.3 (+31.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UCD 79 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | -0.7 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#181) | 0.14 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#178) | 0.68 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#224) | 0.499 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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