Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +170 UCSB -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -2.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.7 (+7.7) | 142.5 (+9.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -2.7 (+8.7) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.6 (+7.6) | 141.8 (+10.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.0 (+8.0) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UCD 79 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#176) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#151) | 0.06 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#137) | 0.23 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#165) | 0.506 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.