Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +110 UCSB -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -3.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.2 (+11.2) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.4 (+12.4) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.8 (+11.8) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.5 (+12.5) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UCD 79 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#203) | 5.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#107) | 0.25 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | 0.16 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#90) | 0.479 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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