Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -188 UCD +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -4.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.9 (-13.9) | 142.6 (+5.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.1 (-13.1) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -3.5 (-13.5) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.1 (-14.1) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | -0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#161) | 0.00 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#164) | -0.17 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#172) | 0.477 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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