Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +140 UCSB -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -0.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.8 (+10.8) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.8 (+11.8) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.4 (+10.4) | 146.2 (+13.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.0 (+11.0) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UCD 79 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#186) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#144) | 0.44 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#134) | 0.52 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#150) | 0.526 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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