Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -400 UCD +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -10.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -8.6 (-12.6) | 132.3 (-8.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.3 (-11.3) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -7.2 (-11.2) | 131.9 (-7.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -8.0 (-12.0) | 130.3 (-6.3) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UCD 79 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#132) | -5.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#126) | -0.15 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | -0.51 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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