Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -1050 CSUF +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +17 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -15.6 (-32.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -16.8 (-33.8) | 156.9 (+2.1) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -13.3 (-30.3) | 160.0 (-1.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -13.2 (-30.2) | 158.6 (+0.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -13.7 (-30.7) | 158.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#80) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#77) | -0.61 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#69) | -0.59 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#55) | 0.481 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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