Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +124 UCSD -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -2.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.9 (+6.9) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -2.7 (+6.7) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.3 (+6.3) | 150.6 (-4.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.3 (+6.3) | 151.3 (-5.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 2.9 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#176) | 0.61 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#171) | 0.75 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#181) | 0.532 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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