Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -600 CSUF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -12.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -9.3 (-2.3) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -10.5 (-3.5) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -10.9 (-3.9) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -11.5 (-4.5) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#109) | -4.5 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | -0.53 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#137) | -0.76 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#150) | 0.482 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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