Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +700 UCSD -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +39 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -14.1 (-24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.6 (-26.4) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -13.7 (-25.3) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -13.5 (-25.5) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -11.6 (-27.4) | 141.0 (-0.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 18-2 |
| Home | 4-11 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-15 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#313) | 9.3 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#306) | 2.47 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#306) | 2.27 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#296) | 0.580 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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