Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -100000 CSUF +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +45 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -29.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -30.4 (+14.6) | 140.7 (+14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -22.5 (+22.5) | 142.7 (+12.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -23.2 (+21.8) | 140.3 (+14.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -31.6 (+13.4) | 141.4 (+13.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 58 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 1-19 |
| Home | 13-2 | 4-11 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#43) | -13.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#36) | -2.01 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#50) | -2.45 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#47) | 0.412 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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