Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | STET +575 LIP -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -13.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -12.5 (+20.5) | 150.8 (+23.2) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -11.4 (+19.4) | 144.1 (+29.9) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -11.0 (+19.0) | 144.4 (+29.6) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -11.6 (+19.6) | 144.4 (+29.6) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | LIP 79 – 74 STET |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIP 93 – 60 STET |
| Jan 27, 2024 | STET 80 – 59 LIP |
| Mar 1, 2023 | LIP 83 – 70 STET |
| Feb 25, 2023 | LIP 98 – 91 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#351) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#297) | 0.41 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#299) | 0.59 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#314) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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