Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -4000 STET +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +33 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -23.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -19.9 (+13.1) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -17.8 (+15.2) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -19.1 (+13.9) | 147.2 (+5.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -20.4 (+12.6) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | LIP 79 – 74 STET |
| Jan 9, 2026 | STET 91 – 83 LIP |
| Jan 27, 2024 | STET 80 – 59 LIP |
| Mar 1, 2023 | LIP 83 – 70 STET |
| Feb 25, 2023 | LIP 98 – 91 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | -14.3 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#124) | -2.34 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#100) | -3.09 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.398 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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