Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | STET +125 LIP -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -1.4 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -1.6 (+22.6) | 153.5 (-14.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -1.7 (+22.7) | 154.6 (-15.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -1.9 (+22.9) | 154.9 (-15.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -1.5 (+22.5) | 155.0 (-16.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | LIP 79 – 74 STET |
| Jan 9, 2026 | STET 91 – 83 LIP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIP 93 – 60 STET |
| Mar 1, 2023 | LIP 83 – 70 STET |
| Feb 25, 2023 | LIP 98 – 91 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#226) | 1.8 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#169) | 0.28 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#209) | 0.19 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#146) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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