Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -198 ACU +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -9.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -7.8 (-11.8) | 143.3 (+20.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.8 (-9.8) | 142.0 (+22.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -8.3 (-12.3) | 144.2 (+19.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -8.3 (-12.3) | 144.6 (+19.4) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ACU 67 – 56 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#138) | -3.7 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#102) | 0.12 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#105) | 0.02 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#93) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 40.6% |
Game Analysis
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