Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -175 TAR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -6.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -5.2 (+5.8) | 127.7 (-4.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -4.3 (+6.7) | 126.5 (-3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -3.0 (+8.0) | 127.6 (-4.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -3.6 (+7.4) | 125.6 (-2.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#265) | -9.4 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#254) | -0.87 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#222) | -1.31 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#249) | 0.459 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.0% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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