Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -125 ACU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -2.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -2.8 (+17.8) | 132.2 (-13.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.5 (+16.5) | 130.4 (-11.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -3.4 (+18.4) | 132.0 (-13.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -3.5 (+18.5) | 133.8 (-14.8) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ACU 67 – 56 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#318) | -4.2 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#263) | -0.66 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#266) | -0.48 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#271) | 0.473 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.9% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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