Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -112 TAR -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -2.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.7 (+6.7) | 137.4 (+24.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.6 (+7.6) | 137.5 (+24.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.9 (+7.9) | 138.0 (+24.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.1 (+8.1) | 138.4 (+23.6) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ACU 67 – 56 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#260) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#224) | -0.38 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#220) | -0.31 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#235) | 0.460 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.2% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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