Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -192 TAR +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -0.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.2 (+14.2) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.9 (+13.1) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -0.1 (+14.1) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.2 (+14.2) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ACU 67 – 56 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#255) | -1.8 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#216) | -0.19 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#214) | 0.04 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#228) | 0.473 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.1% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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