Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · February 17, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money TAR +102 / ACU -122
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +3 127 Won
Massey TAR -5.5 (-2.5)
Massey Totals 142.3 (-15.3)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 70%
Efficiency Plus ML TAR -3.6 (-0.6) 134.2 (-7.2) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -4.0 (-1.0) 134.1 (-7.1) 66%
Baseline ML TAR -3.7 (-0.7) 134.4 (-7.4) 66%
Baseline Plus ML TAR -3.6 (-0.6) 135.4 (-8.4) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 ACU 8478 TAR
Feb 14, 2026 ACU 7359 TAR
Jan 9, 2026 ACU 8480 TAR
Feb 28, 2025 TAR 6752 ACU
Jan 24, 2025 ACU 6756 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR ACU
Overall 14-18 14-19
Conference 5-13 5-13
Home 10-6 9-5
Away 4-11 3-12
Neutral 0-1 2-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 67.9
Avg Pts Against 75.8 73.9
Massey -2.4 (#208) -5.0 (#244)
Bradley-Terry -0.29 (#199) -0.32 (#204)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#176) -0.43 (#202)
RPI 0.468 (#243) 0.486 (#214)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR ACU
FG% 44.7% 41.9%
3PT% 31.9% 33.0%
REB / G 31.0 30.6
OREB / G 10.6 11.5
AST / TO 0.72 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 47.3%
TOV% 20.4% 21.1%
ORB% 31.1% 32.9%
FT Rate 31.1% 27.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.9% 55.9%
Opp TOV% 24.8% 23.6%
DRB% 65.2% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 33.0% 38.4%

Game Analysis

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