Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +102 ACU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -5.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -3.6 (-0.6) | 135.4 (-8.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.6 (-0.6) | 134.2 (-7.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -4.0 (-1.0) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.7 (-0.7) | 134.4 (-7.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ACU 67 – 56 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#208) | -5.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#199) | -0.32 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#176) | -0.43 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#243) | 0.486 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 38.4% |
Game Analysis
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