Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +225 ELON -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -4.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -4.3 (-0.7) | 158.3 (-25.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -3.1 (-1.9) | 157.8 (-24.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -3.5 (-1.5) | 158.2 (-25.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -4.9 (-0.1) | 157.4 (-24.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NCAT 102 – 82 ELON |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NCAT 60 – 59 ELON |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ELON 69 – 65 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ELON 77 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#273) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#285) | 0.14 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#285) | 0.16 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#308) | 0.514 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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