Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ELON -225 NCAT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -8.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -5.8 (+12.2) | 152.7 (-16.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -4.5 (+13.5) | 153.3 (-17.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -5.7 (+12.3) | 155.6 (-19.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -5.8 (+12.2) | 154.1 (-18.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NCAT 102 – 82 ELON |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ELON 69 – 64 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NCAT 60 – 59 ELON |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ELON 69 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 4-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#296) | -12.1 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#256) | -1.78 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#277) | -2.40 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#243) | 0.418 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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