Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ELON -360 NCAT +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +20 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -8.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -7.7 (-27.7) | 150.6 (+33.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -8.3 (-28.3) | 147.8 (+36.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -6.5 (-26.5) | 147.6 (+36.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -6.4 (-26.4) | 149.3 (+34.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | ELON 69 – 64 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NCAT 60 – 59 ELON |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ELON 69 – 65 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ELON 77 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | -7.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#200) | -1.23 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#209) | -1.82 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#180) | 0.440 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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