Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ELON -1000 NCAT +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -13.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -11.0 (-12.0) | 144.6 (-25.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -10.1 (-11.1) | 143.8 (-24.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -11.3 (-12.3) | 144.6 (-25.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -10.9 (-11.9) | 144.5 (-25.5) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NCAT 102 – 82 ELON |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ELON 69 – 64 NCAT |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ELON 69 – 65 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ELON 77 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | -10.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#180) | -2.94 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#172) | -3.35 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#181) | 0.383 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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