Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +120 ELON -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -0.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.5 (-5.5) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.8 (-4.8) | 146.4 (-12.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.8 (-4.8) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.5 (-4.5) | 149.4 (-15.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NCAT 102 – 82 ELON |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ELON 69 – 64 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NCAT 60 – 59 ELON |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ELON 77 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#334) | -9.0 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#303) | -1.60 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#316) | -1.97 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#291) | 0.422 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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