Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LIU -455 MERC +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -11.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -8.0 (-6.0) | 138.6 (-20.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -9.6 (-7.6) | 137.3 (-19.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -8.7 (-6.7) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -8.5 (-6.5) | 137.6 (-19.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | LIU 79 – 70 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MERC 91 – 83 LIU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MERC 85 – 80 LIU |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LIU 72 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-9 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#181) | -8.4 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | -2.23 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#174) | -2.94 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#149) | 0.409 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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